Peering Back Into the 2024 Cryptocurrency Crystal Ball
The Predictions That Were Right, Wrong
and Those Still Blurry
By Jay Biancamano
Head of Tokenization & Digital Assets, Platonic
In 2024, the world of cryptocurrency was buzzing with predictions, some extremely optimistic, and others more cautious. The FTX induced crypto winter was melting. rom investors to analysts and developers to regulators, everyone had their own take on what the future would hold for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest of the crypto gang. Let’s dive into how those crystal-ball moments turned out.
1. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices surge, Altcoins would follow
Prediction:
Many crypto optimists believed that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) would see a dramatic rise in value. Why? Two major events: 1. The launch of nearly a dozen bitcoin ETFs and 2. Bitcoin had its halving event (which historically means less Bitcoin to go around, making it more valuable). Institutional interest was growing, and Ethereum was transitioning to Ethereum 2.0, with its shiny new proof-of-stake mechanism.
Reality:
Bitcoin: Cha-ching! Bitcoin’s price did indeed climb, reaching some impressive highs. The halving in April helped, as did institutional as well as retail investors looking for a hedge against inflation via the ETFs.
Ethereum: Ethereum also saw nice gains, thanks to Ethereum 2.0 and the growing DeFi/NFT ecosystems. But, let’s be real—scalability issues and stiff competition from other chains like Solana and Avalanche meant Ethereum’s growth wasn’t quite as moon-bound as some had hoped. The “flippening” didn’t come to fruition. Altcoins were mixed and saw short term volatility increased, especially for the top 20.
2. Increased regulation and government intervention
Prediction:
Experts were expecting 2024 to bring a deluge of crypto regulations, especially in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The government was allegedly ready to clamp down on security risks, tax evasion, and fraud. Some even predicted that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) would rise to challenge decentralized cryptocurrencies.
Reality:
Regulation: The prediction came true, sort of. The U.S. SEC wasn’t shy about going after unregistered securities, while Europe rolled out its MiCA regulation for clearer crypto rules. Still, real regulation is still a year or two away, despite the enthusiasm of the incoming administration.
CBDCs: Yep, CBDCs were a thing. China continued pushing forward with its digital yuan, and other countries (including those in Africa and Europe) began piloting their own digital currencies. Fiat was coming for crypto, It still is but again years away.
3. Mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies
Prediction:
2024 was going to be the year of widespread crypto adoption. Bitcoin and Ethereum were going to be as common in transactions as credit cards, with more businesses accepting crypto and financial apps making crypto a breeze for everyone.
Reality:
Well, sort of. Stablecoins became pretty popular for remittances and payments, but full-on retail adoption? Not for anything I want to buy. While big companies like PayPal offered crypto services, manipulation, volatility, regulation, and obnoxious fees made it hard for the average person to jump on the crypto bandwagon. Still, in places like Latin America and Africa, crypto has found a much warmer reception..
4. DeFi and Layer-2 solutions will flourish
Prediction:
DeFi platforms and Layer-2 solutions were going to thrive, especially with Ethereum 2.0. The hope was that these technologies would solve Ethereum’s congestion issues and create a whole new wave of financial innovation.
Reality:
DeFi definitely grew, with activity booming on Ethereum and other chains (like Solana and Binance). Layer-2 solutions accelerated as well, making Ethereum transactions faster and cheaper. However, the DeFi market still hasn’t grown as big as some had envisioned. Issues like security and regulatory uncertainty still have investors skittish for now.
5. NFTs and Metaverse projects would see continued growth
Prediction:
2024 was supposed to be the year NFTs became more than just digital art and JPEGs of apes. There was optimism of increased adoption of NFTs being used in gaming, real estate, ticketing, and basically any sector you could think of. The Metaverse, of course, was going to be the next big thing, too.
Reality:
NFTs definitely evolved—thankfully moving beyond the shiny monkey art craze—But the excitement of the 2021-2022 NFT bubble didn’t return. Gaming and real estate saw some good use cases, but let’s just say the Metaverse’s “big breakthrough” felt like it had the same progress as an internet dial-up connection—promising, but still a bit sluggish.
6. Environmental concerns and energy use
Prediction:
Bitcoin’s energy consumption is often compared to that of small countries. Many expected 2024 to see a shift toward greener blockchain tech or even regulatory pressure to replace proof-of-work (PoW) with the more ESG friendly method like proof-of-stake (PoS).
Reality:
Well, Bitcoin’s energy consumption continued to stir the pot, with critics not letting it slide. Ethereum, thankfully, made the switch to PoS back in 2022, reducing its energy consumption drastically. Other blockchains followed suit, but PoW coins like Bitcoin were still under the microscope. Guess we’re all still trying to figure out how to save the planet and mine crypto.
7. Security will continue to be a major concern
Prediction:
Given the crypto world’s history of hacks and security issues, 2024 was expected to see a continuation of breaches, which could shake investor confidence.
Reality:
Sadly, this one hit the nail on the head, especially for crypto.. Hacks were still a problem. Maybe not as big as some of the hype surrounding high-profile breaches affecting centralized exchanges, DeFi platforms, and even NFTs, but still a problem. The crypto space made strides in improving security, but let’s just say the “trust no one” motto was still going strong in 2024. Unfortunately, this same mindset still plagues even digital assets where hacking is not much of an issue.
Conclusion: how accurate were the 2024 predictions?
In short: it’s a mixed bag. Some predictions hit the mark (like Bitcoin and Ethereum price surges and increased regulation), while others were a bit more optimistic than reality (mainstream adoption, I’m looking at you). While the crypto world continued to evolve with some solid growth in areas like DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions, there’s still plenty of room for improvement in terms of security, scalability, and, of course, reducing that carbon footprint.
All in all, 2024 wasn’t the year for crypto to take over the world, but it was another step forward on the digital frontier. Hold on tight though, because there are some amazing things that are going to happen in 2025! Stay Tuned.
About the Author
Jay Biancamano is Head of Tokenization & Digital Assets, Platonic. With a distinguished career spanning over two decades, Biancamano has been at the forefront of innovation in capital markets, specializing in crypto, digital assets, and blockchain technologies.
Before joining Platonic, he held key roles such as head of digital assets tokenization, digital fund administration, and commercialization at State Street. His leadership experience also includes positions at Fidessa, Liquidnet, and Pipeline (acquired by Factset). Biancamano’s entrepreneurial spirit led him to found Hoyvin, an AI-driven equity platform, showcasing his commitment to pioneering new technologies.
Biancamano is not only a thought leader but also an educator, having served as an adjunct professor of business at The College of New Jersey and contributing to the board of the Center of Innovation at Rutgers University. His academic journey includes a BA in Finance from Rutgers University, an MBA in MIS and International Business from Fordham University, and postgraduate studies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.